Winter storm lighter than anticipated...
I was afraid this would happen; however, there wasn't enough model data consistency to confirm. This afternoon, I was discussing the position of the coastal low to a fellow meteorologist and we noticed the storm was farther east than was projected. Although, it wasn't by much, it was enough to concentrate the heavier snow bands east of NYC. Not until the 0Z model runs did I see enough to support this theory. Looking at current radar and water vapor imagery, there is some noticeable drying on the western half of the low, serving to cut off the necessary moisture needed to fuel stronger snow bands over NJ. Moderate snow bands are concentrated to the north and east of the low pressure center. As this low continues pushing northeast, so will the precipitation. The snow has been falling for about 3 hours now and we have approximately 2" accumulated. The storm has time yet to continue strengthening but I don't believe the forecasted 8"-10" is still in our future. It appears more realistic that Northeast NJ will see accumulations around 6"-8" by early morning Wednesday. Long Island and southern Connecticut should still see upwards of 18".
I was afraid this would happen; however, there wasn't enough model data consistency to confirm. This afternoon, I was discussing the position of the coastal low to a fellow meteorologist and we noticed the storm was farther east than was projected. Although, it wasn't by much, it was enough to concentrate the heavier snow bands east of NYC. Not until the 0Z model runs did I see enough to support this theory. Looking at current radar and water vapor imagery, there is some noticeable drying on the western half of the low, serving to cut off the necessary moisture needed to fuel stronger snow bands over NJ. Moderate snow bands are concentrated to the north and east of the low pressure center. As this low continues pushing northeast, so will the precipitation. The snow has been falling for about 3 hours now and we have approximately 2" accumulated. The storm has time yet to continue strengthening but I don't believe the forecasted 8"-10" is still in our future. It appears more realistic that Northeast NJ will see accumulations around 6"-8" by early morning Wednesday. Long Island and southern Connecticut should still see upwards of 18". 
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