Monday, January 17, 2011

Wild Week of Weather Ahead


We have a wild week of weather ahead of us in the northeast.  The first storm will impact our area overnight tonight into late Tuesday afternoon.  This is a complex storm.  A coastal low pressure coming up the coast will combine with a frontal low in the Ohio Valley.  The coastal low will take over and gain strength Tuesday morning.  Snow will move into the region from the south sometime after midnight tonight.  Northern NJ will see snowfall totals by sunrise of anywhere between 1"-3".  By morning, the coastal low will gain strength and pull in warmer air from the ocean.  When this happens, the warmer air mass will serve to melt the precipitation so we see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for our area.  The coastal regions will see an immediate changeover to rain at this point.  This mixed bag of precipitation in Northeast NJ will last until about 3pm.  Through this period, we could see upwards of 0.1"-0.2" of ice accumulate on top of the snow pact.  This will make driving very difficult through most of the day.  By 3pm-4pm we will see a changeover to rain as temperatures will climb above freezing.  Northwest NJ, which includes Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties, will experience freezing rain and sleet for a longer period of time and could see ice accumulations of 0.25"-0.5" by time the storm is through.  
On Wednesday, a Canadian high pressure system will move in and give us a brief period of clear weather.  A break we will certainly need before storm #2 enters our region Thursday into Friday.  
Storm #2 will be more of a coastal winter storm that will include more snow for NJ than Tuesday's storm.  Early forecast models are showing possible snow totals late Thursday evening into Friday afternoon of 4"-6".  Since this is still four days away from occurring, I will say this is premature; however, it doesn't hurt to know the possibility exists.  
I know this week is the first week of many college semesters and it looks as though this week will be full of cancellations and abbreviated days.  Good luck to many of my friends who are beginning their last semester! (Had to throw that in there. You know who you are.)  If there are still classes tomorrow, be very careful driving as many of the roads will be slick.

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