Like a Broken Record...

Just a little weather humor

Sorry to all of my readers for the lack of updates on the upcoming storm.  I have to begin with some venting before I get into the details of the pending snow storm. I am extremely disappointed in some news outlets over the coverage of this storm which BEGAN last Friday.  Many of you were texting me, calling me, or emailing me to ask for my opinion on the next SNOWMAGGEDON.  I find it extremely irresponsible for ANY professional meteorologist to publicly discuss any storm that far in advance and with that much severity.  On Friday, it was said that this storm would last for 72 hours in the NYC metro area and dump as much as 3 feet of snow in some areas.  For those non-meteorologists, this forecast was produced by a model known as the GFS which is extremely inaccurate that far in advance and bases its output off of trends at that point in time.  There was also zero model consistency to base their predictions.  Forecasts for storms, especially snow storms, are only reliable to be addressed to the public within 48-72 hours with ANY certainty.  Prior to that, it should be mentioned as a 'heads up'.  One, often visited, weather site is renowned for their wishcasting and over-exaggerated blogs/graphics.  I know this is a lot of ranting and venting on my part, but the message I want to convey to you is this: 
When looking for a weather forecast, be mindful of how far away the forecasted storm is and the severity of it.  3 feet of snow lasting for 72 hours and forecasted 6 days in advance is absurd and should only be reserved for movies.  A storm that severe would only be forecasted with ANY confidence a day or two in advance. 


Ok. Deep breath. Back to this storm. 


 Over the last 24 hours, we have finally seen model consistency for this storm.  Since this storm was first derived by model data last week, there has been a great amount of flip-flopping over the exact storm track.  The key for this storm was the slight amount of snowfall we received Tuesday morning.  That small system dumped only 2"-3" across northern NJ; however, its biggest impact was the shift in wind direction from northerly winds to southerly winds.  This shift brought us temperatures several degrees above freezing and broke the intense cold snap we have been in for the last couple days.  This means that Wednesday's storm will not have the strong Arctic air to fuel it.  As a result, the coastal areas will most likely see more rain/sleet through most of the day before a changeover to snow.  The  rest of northern NJ and western NJ will see mostly snow with a brief mixing possible for the urban areas during the afternoon.
The storm will approach from the south tomorrow afternoon and pass through the Delmarva heading toward eastern Long Island.  Precipitation will begin to fall around noon for northern NJ, starting as all snow, since temperatures will be at or around 32degrees.  By 3pm, the temperatures may climb high enough for northeast NJ to experience some mixing with snow/sleet/rain.  If this happens, especially for any significant amount of time, expect snow totals on the lower end of the range.  By 9pm, temperatures will fall low enough across the entire forecast area to change all precipitation to snow.  This is also when the majority of the accumulations will take place.  The bulls-eye for this storm looks to be west-central NJ, specifically the counties of Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, and Somerset counties.  As with every other storm this winter, any shift in its track to the west or east will mean a change in the forecast totals.  One model, WRF, is on the extreme snowfall spectrum, forecasting totals as high as 12"-16" across NJ, while other models are forecasting a more modest range of 6"-10".  This is what I am leaning toward as well.  Therefore, I'm anticipating all of northern NJ to see snow totals in the 6"-10" range.  The shore areas will see lower snow totals in the range of 2"-6".  Expect a lot of travel delays throughout the afternoon and evening Wednesday and potentially extending into Thursday morning rush hour.  


As always, if anything changes, I will be quick to update. Be safe if you have to travel tomorrow during the storm!