Saturday, January 29, 2011

2011 Winter vs 2005 Hurricane Seasons...

No I'm not trying to compare Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma to having 56.1" of snow in 2 months.  That would just be down right offensive to those who are still suffering in New Orleans. What I am trying to compare, is the conceitedness and immense hubris that we are seeing in meteorologists today with what we saw during the 2005 Hurricane season.  
This is the second week in a row that several MEDIA meteorologists are forecasting a strong snowstorm for the northeast 6 days in advance.  Last week, Accuweather.com posted articles and map discussions explaining how the NYC and Philadelphia metro areas would receive up to three feet of snow from a storm lasting 72 hours.  This forecast was produced 6 days ahead of the forecasted storm.  As we moved closer to the actual event, models were still all over the place but it did become apparent that we would receive several inches of snow.  Accuweather's call for 3 feet of snow was simply a ratings ploy and it worked until the storm actually arrived and we saw snow totals in the range of 12"-18".  That is a long way away from 3 feet of snow originally forecasted.  Accuweather's call for 3 feet of snow was simply a ratings ploy and it worked until the storm actually arrived and we saw they were a few FEET short in their forecast.
The day AFTER that snowstorm, while all of us were digging ourselves out, some local news outlets began hinting at another strong snowstorm for next week.  One meteorologist, who will remain nameless, had the audacity to even mention BLIZZARD.  Is there a possibility for a storm next week? Absolutely.  Forecast models have been and still are calling for the development of a Low pressure system over Oklahoma that will travel east.  The question remains as to what type of precipitation we will see.  Most models are showing a western track that will provide much of the Philadelphia and NYC metro areas with a rain/sleet event and not a snow event.  
2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The point of the matter is that, just as in 2005, media meteorologists are gaining a false sense of security and confidence that every disturbance will turn into a strong storm.  Yeah, sure, for the most part that has been the case, but, to go out there and publicly call for a blizzard 7 days away is just ridiculous.  For those who don't remember, the 2005 hurricane season was absolutely incredible.  Every tropical disturbance seemed to have become a named storm.  Meteorologists began talking about every system in the sense that it WILL become a strong hurricane instead of it COULD become a strong hurricane.  We had 28 named storms and had to use Greek letters because we had no more names to give out on the list.  Meteorologists could do no wrong in their forecasts for storm development.  Unfortunately, I'm beginning to see the same form of brass out of meteorologists today.  They are just overconfident that every trough in the south will grow into a coastal system for the east.  This is good in the sense that people are beginning to listen and believe in meteorologists again; however, it only takes one blown forecast for that trust to disappear again.  My feeling is that this upcoming system will be that blown forecast.  For meteorologists to go out and proclaim the possibility of a blizzard next week is completely ridiculous.  If the models hold true to where they are today, we won't be talking about blizzards and more snow, but rather, rain and flooding.  
To my fellow peers in the media, I know ratings are key, but so is respect.  Respect is a two-way street.  You show respect to your viewers by giving an HONEST and RESPONSIBLE forecast and they will return that same respect.  Don't let your hubris get the best of you.  Trust the science.

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