This one has a lot of everything...

Well, here we go again.  This storm has already dumped over a foot of snow and several inches of ice over the heartland and it's going to bring us some snow, freezing rain, ice, and rain.  The problem with this storm is that due to the complexity of the snow/ice line, there is a short gradient between who will receive mostly snow and freezing rain and who will receive more rain.  So for this post, I'm going to address Northeast NJ and Northwest NJ separately.
Let's start with the Northeast.

Northeast NJ will see precipitation move in around 3am in the form of all snow.  By Tuesday morning, some warmer air will filter in to the upper atmosphere.  This warm air will not change us over to rain but rather freezing rain and ice pellets.  The reason being is that the air temperature at the surface will still be below freezing while the air temperature in the upper atmosphere will be above freezing.  This in effect prevents the crystals that usually form snowflakes from forming.  When the precipitation reaches the ground, it is still very cold and will freeze on contact.
There will be a break in the precipitation during the late afternoon early evening hours.  This intermittence will last until the primary storm system moves in from the west.  Around 9-10pm the precipitation will begin again in the form of heavy snow and sleet.  This is where the primary accumulations will take place.  Throughout the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday, Northeast NJ will see totals in the 2"-4" range.  Wednesday morning, we will see a quick changeover from snow to sleet and rain.  This will keep totals down compared to the rest of north Jersey.  Total Ice accumulation could be .25"-.40".

Northwest NJ will see a longer period of snow and freezing rain due to the higher elevations and track of the storm.  Northwest NJ will see snow totals in the range of 9"-12" and ice accumulations in excess of a half inch.

As always the exact track of the storm will determine the timing of the changeover and the snow/ice accumulations.  Keep checking in throughout the storm for any updates.

New Forecast Page is up!

Alright everyone. This blog is continuing to evolve.  If you click the link at the top of the page that says Forecast you will be sent to my brand new Forecast page (pretty original, huh?).  On this page, I will update my 3-Day forecast graphic.  There won't be any text or satellite/radar imagery, but those will come in time.  For now, there will be a 3-day forecast graphic so as to give you an idea as to what we could expect for NE NJ over the next 72 hours.
Hope you all enjoy!

2011 Winter vs 2005 Hurricane Seasons...

No I'm not trying to compare Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma to having 56.1" of snow in 2 months.  That would just be down right offensive to those who are still suffering in New Orleans. What I am trying to compare, is the conceitedness and immense hubris that we are seeing in meteorologists today with what we saw during the 2005 Hurricane season.  
This is the second week in a row that several MEDIA meteorologists are forecasting a strong snowstorm for the northeast 6 days in advance.  Last week, Accuweather.com posted articles and map discussions explaining how the NYC and Philadelphia metro areas would receive up to three feet of snow from a storm lasting 72 hours.  This forecast was produced 6 days ahead of the forecasted storm.  As we moved closer to the actual event, models were still all over the place but it did become apparent that we would receive several inches of snow.  Accuweather's call for 3 feet of snow was simply a ratings ploy and it worked until the storm actually arrived and we saw snow totals in the range of 12"-18".  That is a long way away from 3 feet of snow originally forecasted.  Accuweather's call for 3 feet of snow was simply a ratings ploy and it worked until the storm actually arrived and we saw they were a few FEET short in their forecast.
The day AFTER that snowstorm, while all of us were digging ourselves out, some local news outlets began hinting at another strong snowstorm for next week.  One meteorologist, who will remain nameless, had the audacity to even mention BLIZZARD.  Is there a possibility for a storm next week? Absolutely.  Forecast models have been and still are calling for the development of a Low pressure system over Oklahoma that will travel east.  The question remains as to what type of precipitation we will see.  Most models are showing a western track that will provide much of the Philadelphia and NYC metro areas with a rain/sleet event and not a snow event.  

2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The point of the matter is that, just as in 2005, media meteorologists are gaining a false sense of security and confidence that every disturbance will turn into a strong storm.  Yeah, sure, for the most part that has been the case, but, to go out there and publicly call for a blizzard 7 days away is just ridiculous.  For those who don't remember, the 2005 hurricane season was absolutely incredible.  Every tropical disturbance seemed to have become a named storm.  Meteorologists began talking about every system in the sense that it WILL become a strong hurricane instead of it COULD become a strong hurricane.  We had 28 named storms and had to use Greek letters because we had no more names to give out on the list.  Meteorologists could do no wrong in their forecasts for storm development.  Unfortunately, I'm beginning to see the same form of brass out of meteorologists today.  They are just overconfident that every trough in the south will grow into a coastal system for the east.  This is good in the sense that people are beginning to listen and believe in meteorologists again; however, it only takes one blown forecast for that trust to disappear again.  My feeling is that this upcoming system will be that blown forecast.  For meteorologists to go out and proclaim the possibility of a blizzard next week is completely ridiculous.  If the models hold true to where they are today, we won't be talking about blizzards and more snow, but rather, rain and flooding.  
To my fellow peers in the media, I know ratings are key, but so is respect.  Respect is a two-way street.  You show respect to your viewers by giving an HONEST and RESPONSIBLE forecast and they will return that same respect.  Don't let your hubris get the best of you.  Trust the science.

Current Temperatures...

The Snow is HERE....again

Well, I woke up this morning and to my surprise, the storm arrived a few hours early, which I'm sure you all noticed already.  So what does this mean for the impact it will have on us? Well, for starters, temperatures will not have the opportunity to climb far enough for rain to mix in northern NJ.  This alone ensures me that we will see the forecasted 6"-10", but there's more.  As this storm continues pushing north, it will be pulling in cold, dry, Arctic air.  This cold air will help support and sustain snow for much of NJ; however, it comes with a price (for you snow lovers).  This cold, Arctic air is dry.  The more this storm pulls in, the sharper the moisture cutoff will be on the northern fringe of the storm.  This is the central key for northern NJ's impact.  The sharp cutoff in the snow bands will keep the heaviest snow bands south of us over central and western NJ near Philadelphia/Trenton.  This area, from Sandy Hook to Philadelphia and south, will see snow totals on the higher end of the scale, close to 10".  The immediate shore counties will see 4"-6".  Northeast NJ will see between 6"-8" while the mountains of Northwest NJ (Warren and Sussex counties) will see lower totals between 4"-6".

Like a Broken Record...

Just a little weather humor

Sorry to all of my readers for the lack of updates on the upcoming storm.  I have to begin with some venting before I get into the details of the pending snow storm. I am extremely disappointed in some news outlets over the coverage of this storm which BEGAN last Friday.  Many of you were texting me, calling me, or emailing me to ask for my opinion on the next SNOWMAGGEDON.  I find it extremely irresponsible for ANY professional meteorologist to publicly discuss any storm that far in advance and with that much severity.  On Friday, it was said that this storm would last for 72 hours in the NYC metro area and dump as much as 3 feet of snow in some areas.  For those non-meteorologists, this forecast was produced by a model known as the GFS which is extremely inaccurate that far in advance and bases its output off of trends at that point in time.  There was also zero model consistency to base their predictions.  Forecasts for storms, especially snow storms, are only reliable to be addressed to the public within 48-72 hours with ANY certainty.  Prior to that, it should be mentioned as a 'heads up'.  One, often visited, weather site is renowned for their wishcasting and over-exaggerated blogs/graphics.  I know this is a lot of ranting and venting on my part, but the message I want to convey to you is this: 
When looking for a weather forecast, be mindful of how far away the forecasted storm is and the severity of it.  3 feet of snow lasting for 72 hours and forecasted 6 days in advance is absurd and should only be reserved for movies.  A storm that severe would only be forecasted with ANY confidence a day or two in advance. 


Ok. Deep breath. Back to this storm. 


 Over the last 24 hours, we have finally seen model consistency for this storm.  Since this storm was first derived by model data last week, there has been a great amount of flip-flopping over the exact storm track.  The key for this storm was the slight amount of snowfall we received Tuesday morning.  That small system dumped only 2"-3" across northern NJ; however, its biggest impact was the shift in wind direction from northerly winds to southerly winds.  This shift brought us temperatures several degrees above freezing and broke the intense cold snap we have been in for the last couple days.  This means that Wednesday's storm will not have the strong Arctic air to fuel it.  As a result, the coastal areas will most likely see more rain/sleet through most of the day before a changeover to snow.  The  rest of northern NJ and western NJ will see mostly snow with a brief mixing possible for the urban areas during the afternoon.
The storm will approach from the south tomorrow afternoon and pass through the Delmarva heading toward eastern Long Island.  Precipitation will begin to fall around noon for northern NJ, starting as all snow, since temperatures will be at or around 32degrees.  By 3pm, the temperatures may climb high enough for northeast NJ to experience some mixing with snow/sleet/rain.  If this happens, especially for any significant amount of time, expect snow totals on the lower end of the range.  By 9pm, temperatures will fall low enough across the entire forecast area to change all precipitation to snow.  This is also when the majority of the accumulations will take place.  The bulls-eye for this storm looks to be west-central NJ, specifically the counties of Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, and Somerset counties.  As with every other storm this winter, any shift in its track to the west or east will mean a change in the forecast totals.  One model, WRF, is on the extreme snowfall spectrum, forecasting totals as high as 12"-16" across NJ, while other models are forecasting a more modest range of 6"-10".  This is what I am leaning toward as well.  Therefore, I'm anticipating all of northern NJ to see snow totals in the 6"-10" range.  The shore areas will see lower snow totals in the range of 2"-6".  Expect a lot of travel delays throughout the afternoon and evening Wednesday and potentially extending into Thursday morning rush hour.  


As always, if anything changes, I will be quick to update. Be safe if you have to travel tomorrow during the storm! 

Brief Weather Note for Thurs/Fri Storm

Update 11:00PM:  Well the same forecast still holds for the area tonight and tomorrow.  The snow will move in from west to east beginning around 12AM-1AM with the heaviest bands developing between 3AM-5AM.  By 10AM, the snow should begin to taper off as the storm pushes east.  When it's all said and done, the entire tri-state area will have accumulated 3"-5" of snow.


Wed Night update: Ok, some of you who are friends with me on facebook saw a post this morning of my initial snow total prediction for the Thurs/Fri storm.  That prediction still holds tonight with this post.  There is a weak Low pressure system pushing through the midwest this evening and will continue traveling east to the Delmarva coastline before turning Northeast.  When it reaches the Atlantic, the storm will strengthen.  The question is timing.  The closer the storm is to the coast as it strengthens, the higher the snow totals will be across the region.  Right now, it appears the storm will strengthen too far east to affect our snow totals and it will be a quick moving storm.  Therefore, I'm calling for 3"-5" for the Tri-State area beginning between 12am-3am overnight into Friday and lasting until noon Friday.  The sun could make an appearance mid-afternoon Friday but it won't help all that much since a very cold air mass will move into the region late friday and last through next Tuesday.  As always, I'll have further updates tomorrow and Friday as the storm impacts our area.

Brief Weather Note for Thurs/Fri Storm

Ok, some of you who are friends with me on facebook saw a post this morning of my initial snow total prediction for the Thurs/Fri storm.  That prediction still holds tonight with this post.  There is a weak Low pressure system pushing through the midwest this evening and will continue traveling east to the Delmarva coastline before turning Northeast.  When it reaches the Atlantic, the storm will strengthen.  The question is timing.  The closer the storm is to the coast as it strengthens, the higher the snow totals will be across the region.  Right now, it appears the storm will strengthen too far east to affect our snow totals and it will be a quick moving storm.  Therefore, I'm calling for 3"-5" for the Tri-State area beginning between 12am-3am overnight into Friday and lasting until noon Friday.  The sun could make an appearance mid-afternoon Friday but it won't help all that much since a very cold air mass will move into the region late friday and last through next Tuesday.  As always, I'll have further updates tomorrow and Friday as the storm impacts our area.

Wild Week of Weather Ahead

We have a wild week of weather ahead of us in the northeast.  The first storm will impact our area overnight tonight into late Tuesday afternoon.  This is a complex storm.  A coastal low pressure coming up the coast will combine with a frontal low in the Ohio Valley.  The coastal low will take over and gain strength Tuesday morning.  Snow will move into the region from the south sometime after midnight tonight.  Northern NJ will see snowfall totals by sunrise of anywhere between 1"-3".  By morning, the coastal low will gain strength and pull in warmer air from the ocean.  When this happens, the warmer air mass will serve to melt the precipitation so we see a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain for our area.  The coastal regions will see an immediate changeover to rain at this point.  This mixed bag of precipitation in Northeast NJ will last until about 3pm.  Through this period, we could see upwards of 0.1"-0.2" of ice accumulate on top of the snow pact.  This will make driving very difficult through most of the day.  By 3pm-4pm we will see a changeover to rain as temperatures will climb above freezing.  Northwest NJ, which includes Sussex, Warren, and Morris counties, will experience freezing rain and sleet for a longer period of time and could see ice accumulations of 0.25"-0.5" by time the storm is through.  
On Wednesday, a Canadian high pressure system will move in and give us a brief period of clear weather.  A break we will certainly need before storm #2 enters our region Thursday into Friday.  
Storm #2 will be more of a coastal winter storm that will include more snow for NJ than Tuesday's storm.  Early forecast models are showing possible snow totals late Thursday evening into Friday afternoon of 4"-6".  Since this is still four days away from occurring, I will say this is premature; however, it doesn't hurt to know the possibility exists.  
I know this week is the first week of many college semesters and it looks as though this week will be full of cancellations and abbreviated days.  Good luck to many of my friends who are beginning their last semester! (Had to throw that in there. You know who you are.)  If there are still classes tomorrow, be very careful driving as many of the roads will be slick.

Overnight update! how bout we raise those totals again!

Ok so, in my previous post, I had lowered the totals because I believed the dry slot of air (a component of a strong coastal low in which dry air cuts off the flow of moisture to a section of the storm, essentially drying the air so it no longer sustains precipitation) was going to move into Northeast NJ.  However, over the last couple of hours, bands of moderate snow have developed over NJ and the dry slot is beginning to cut off the snowfall from Long Island.  As a result, it appears that my original forecast of 8"-10" will hold true with locally higher amounts depending on the development of stronger snow bands.  Central Long Island, which was originally forecast to receive over a foot of snow, will fall well short of that total since they will not see as much snowfall overnight.  Like I always say, these storms are very volatile and forecasts are heavily dependent upon where the heavier snow bands develop.  Enjoy storm #3 on this already active winter season!

 

Winter storm lighter than anticipated...

 I was afraid this would happen; however, there wasn't enough model data consistency to confirm.  This afternoon, I was discussing the position of the coastal low to a fellow meteorologist and we noticed the storm was farther east than was projected.  Although, it wasn't by much, it was enough to concentrate the heavier snow bands east of NYC.  Not until the 0Z model runs did I see enough to support this theory.  Looking at current radar and water vapor imagery, there is some noticeable drying on the western half of the low, serving to cut off the necessary moisture needed to fuel stronger snow bands over NJ.  Moderate snow bands are concentrated to the north and east of the low pressure center.  As this low continues pushing northeast, so will the precipitation.  The snow has been falling for about 3 hours now and we have approximately 2" accumulated.  The storm has time yet to continue strengthening but I don't believe the forecasted 8"-10" is still in our future.  It appears more realistic that Northeast NJ will see accumulations around 6"-8" by early morning Wednesday.  Long Island and southern Connecticut should still see upwards of 18".  

Next stop on the Snow Train.... Northeast

Yeah, I know that was a little corny but that is certainly what this weather pattern is starting to feel like.  We've been spoiled over the last few years with seasonal snowfall totals in Newark, NJ well below average.  The average seasonal total for Newark, NJ is unofficially 27.0".  We nearly beat that with the December Blizzard where Newark officially received 24.5".  For the 2010-2011 winter season, the snow train just keeps chugging along.  We've had a coastal low pressure system that bombed out to produce blizzard conditions.  We've had a clipper system and a norlun trough push through the region.  Now, we will see a dual Low pressure system impact the region with yet another 8"+ of snow.

Click picture for a larger image

This system has already been responsible for shutting down much of the Southeast.  Alabama has declared a state of emergency for the amount of snow/ice they received and Atlanta, Georgia came to a standstill today as they attempted to shovel out from 4"-8" of snow/ice they received.
Atlanta does not have the capability of handling a storm like this as significant snowfall in Atlanta is quite rare.  The problem the south will have now is the freezing temperatures that will follow behind the storm.  Temperatures will only climb to the mid 30's across much of the southeast which could continue to hamper much of the clean-up efforts after the storm.  All of this will be coming our way Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon.

So, now that I've mentioned what this storm has already done, let's talk about what this storm will do over the next 48 hours.  Currently, we have a Low pressure system over Florida that will travel north along the coastline by way of a stationary Atlantic Front.  At the same time, a trough over the Ohio Valley will develop into a weak Low pressure and travel eastward and on a collision course with the coastal low.  Late Tuesday afternoon, these two Low pressures will interact.  The coastal low, being stronger, will feed off the energy the inland low provides and continue to strengthen Wednesday morning as it becomes the sole low pressure system and bombs out off the coast of Long Island.
Light snow should begin between 8pm and 10pm, with the heavier bands of snow developing just before sunrise.  There is a lot of moisture with this storm; however, it is a fast moving system so it won't have enough time to dump over a foot of snow in our area.  Northeast NJ should see snow totals ranging from 8"-10" from this storm, while higher snow totals will be found in Monmouth County, NJ and areas east of NYC. Those areas could see 10"-15" of snow.  Again, as was the case with previous storms, these totals are dependent upon where the heavier snow bands will develop.  Many of the forecast models are in agreement that the heavier bands will be along the shoreline and east of NYC.
This storm will produce strong winds in excess of 35mph with higher gusts.  Although these winds are strong enough to result in blizzard conditions, the precipitation should be over with by the time these winds arrive; therefore, no reduction of visibility should take place.  As a result, this will just be a significant winter storm and not a blizzard.
When this storm passes Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will plummet and we will experience temperatures as low as 8-10 degrees below the normal temperatures for this time of the year.  All of that  I will discuss in future posts.  For now, enjoy yet ANOTHER snow storm!
I will leave you with this picture taken by NASA of a snow covered England. I guess it could be worse for us, huh?

A clipper from Alberta and a trough nobody's ever heard of...

These are two things that we need to be concerned about for tomorrow's snow event.  In a brief synopsis this is what we will see happening Thursday night through Friday evening.  An Alberta Clipper will be moving into the region overnight Thursday.  At the same time, a coastal system will be phasing over the Atlantic, too far east to impact our weather directly.  As this coastal low develops and gains strength, it will merge with the Alberta Clipper. When this happens, a trough, known as a Norlun trough, will form.  A Norlun trough acts in a similar way as a Lake Effect snow band in that it can dump a surprisingly large amount of snow in a brief period of time.  Where this trough sets up will determine who will get significant snowfall totals.
So, the question you may be asking yourself is, What is an Alberta Clipper? and What is a Norlun trough?

Typical Path of an Alberta Clipper

An Alberta Clipper is defined as a fast moving low pressure system that moves southeast out of the Canadian Province of Alberta (southwest Canada) through the Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region usually during the winter. This low pressure area is usually accompanied by light snow, strong winds, and colder temperatures.  We usually do not see large snow falls with Alberta Clippers as they are typically to dry to sustain intense snow bands plus they move through too swiftly.

A Norlun trough is a trough that acts very similar to a Lake Effect snow band in that it can dump snow at a rate of 2"-6" per hour in a narrow band where just a few miles away would receive little if any snow at all.  Norlun troughs aren't as common as Lake Effect snow but when they do form they could be found over the New England region.  They are a rather recent discovery when research was conducted after two storms surprised many areas in New England. The first storm occurred in March of 1992 when portions of Maine recieved 1-2 feet of snow after a clipper system moved through and a trough developed and stalled over the region.  The second storm was in Feb 1993 when Cape Cod received 30 inches of snow after forecasts were calling for only 3 inches!  Two scientists, Steve Nogueira and Weir Lundsted conducted research on these events and came to the conclusion that a unique stalled trough was to blame for these surprise events.  As a result of their joint discovery, the trough was named after them and became the Norlun trough.

Ok, now enough with the meteorology lesson.  Let's get down to the forecast, shall we? Light snow should develop west to east early Friday morning.  As the clipper system begins to merge with the coastal low, the Norlun trough will develop.  Where this trough develops is vital to the forecast for this snow event.  As was mentioned earlier, the trough is a very narrow band of persistent and intense snowfall.  My belief is that this trough will develop and remain over the lower Hudson valley and western Connecticut.  Those areas could see snow totals as high as 6"-8".  For northeast NJ, we are currently in a Winter Storm Advisory and should see only snow totals of 2"-4" before this is all said and done.  I wouldn't be concerned with impassable roads and buried cars like we saw with last weeks blizzard.  That storm dumped 3"-6" per hour over several hours.  This snow event will give us 2"-4" of snow over a period of 12-18 hours.
As always, if anything changes, I will post any updates.  In the meantime, let's hope this Norlun trough keeps it's intense snow bands and 6"-9" of snow over the lower Hudson Valley and away from northeast NJ.