Well as the saying goes, "Two's company, three's a crowd." Certainly at this point, the Atlantic is very crowded as we can now add Tropical Depression 9 to the list of storms in the Atlantic, which already includes Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona. But before I get to Fiona and TD 9, let me start with Hurricane Earl.
As per the 11AM update, Earl is holding steady at 125 mph sustained winds, making it a Category 3 storm and is moving northwest at 17 mph into an area conducive to further strengthening although most models predict a steady state followed by gradual weakening for him. The National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane WARNING for the East Coast of the U.S from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/Virginia border which includes Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Hurricane WATCHES have been issued from the NC/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen, Delaware, meaning that Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area and are typically issued 48 hours prior to the occurrence of tropical storm force winds. Tropical Storm WARNINGS have been issued for areas south of Bogue Inlet, NC to Cape Fear, NC.
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| Model Outputs (courtesy of Weather Underground) |
The High-pressure ridge over the Atlantic, which has been steering the storm WNW is showing signs of retreat, which will allow Earl to begin gradually turning NNW over the next 36 hours. With that said, I am still looking at the official forecast with cautious skepticism as I feel the models are over-estimating the retreat of the ridge and underestimating the current speed of the storm. The official forecast calls for Earl to pass just east of the Outer Banks followed by a NNE turn which will keep it off the coastline until making a final landfall in Nova Scotia. Most of the models support this track; however, it is important to note that these models also predicted Earl to turn to the north before even passing Bermuda. The point I'm trying to make is that the models are expecting this turn to the north but they don't have a complete grasp on the timing. One model, NGFDL, which is the Navy's version of the GFDL model, is forecasting a track much further west taking Earl into the Outer Banks and then hugging the coastline before making a second landfall near Islip, NY. Because this is inconsistent with the other models, the NGFDL has to be dismissed as an anomaly when producing the official forecast; however, it is important to note that track as a possibility. My opinion is that Hurricane Earl follows a track between the NGFDL (yellow line) and the UKMET (white line), which will take it just east of the Outer Banks and making landfall in Mass. There is a tendency for strong hurricanes like Earl to wobble as they move across the ocean, so any change in position East or West will alter the forecast track. Therefore, it is important for us in NJ to pay close attention to this storm as it approaches the coastline.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we have Tropical Storm Fiona and, now newly named, Tropical Depression 9. Tropical Storm Fiona is packing 60 mph sustained winds; however, she is not expected to reach hurricane status and is forecasted to remain away from the East Coast but could impact Bermuda early next week. Tropical Depression 9 is far out east in the Atlantic and is forecasted to reach Tropical storm status by this evening at which time it will be named Gaston.
- Meteorologist Anthony Dalbo
Well, 2010 is almost over and in a few hours, 2011 will begin. It's been a wild year for weather across the world. From blizzards to hurricanes, and from floods to droughts. For us here in northern NJ, 2011 will begin with some warmth. High pressure is anchored to our south and will serve to push some warm air in from the Gulf. For the next 3 days, as the High Pressure slowly moves east, we will see temperatures continue to climb to the upper 40's. The average for this time of year is around 31 degrees! That is certainly some welcome news to those whose streets have yet to be plowed in NYC or those of us with 7ft piles of snow on our lawns! However, all good things must come to an end and, for this heat, it will end on Monday. A cold front will push through the region on Sunday bringing with it rain and some wind. This could cause some flooding in areas where drainage sewers are still blocked by snow mounds so be aware. 
