A week ago, the GFS model forecasted an incredible snowstorm for Christmas Eve into Christmas morning. As meteorologists, we look at this with much skepticism and call it wish-casting. As the days progressed, the GFS was holding firm. The NYC Metro area was going to get slammed. Then reality began to sink in as other models were able to pick up the storm. However, on Tues and Wed, the rest of the models shifted the storm 100 miles east, making this storm nothing more than a few clouds and wind for our area. This was the case until Thursday night, when the GFS once again shifted the storm 100 miles west. The question arose, "Was this an initialization error or is the GFS picking up on something all other models aren't?" After the next model run a few more models were shifting west until we came to last night and this morning where all of the models are now predicting this storm to ride the coast. So what does this mean for NE NJ?
Well, for starters, it means we will be getting a whole lot of snow and a whole lot of wind. The Low pressure that will be disrupting our post-Christmas travel plans is currently dumping several inches of snow across the southeast. Between now and Sunday afternoon, it will begin to push along the east coast. As it does it will phase and strengthen, doing something we meteorologists like to call "bombing out."
Light snow will begin moving in from the south Sunday morning. By Sunday evening, the heavier snow bands will begin to move into our area along with increasing winds. Wind overnight could gust as high as 35-40mph causing white out conditions while making driving nearly impossible. The big question remains, how much snow will we have when all is said and done?
The NWS is currently forecasting 6"-8" for NE NJ with higher amounts further east. This is a good estimate; however, I believe it's a bit conservative and cautious. I'm calling for snowfall totals to be 10"-12" or greater for areas in NE NJ with higher snowfall totals further east. This isn't a storm to be taken lightly. We currently have Winter Weather Watches posted all across the Tri-State area and those watches will be upgraded to Warnings by 8pm.
Only time will tell, but I'm rather confident that this will verify. So get your shovels and sleds out, because the only bad thing about this storm is that it's happening over winter break and school's already out for the holidays. Stay warm and make sure you dress in layers if you will be outdoors during the storm.
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