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| Hurricane Earl (Courtesy of NHC) |
At the 11AM update, Earl has begun to weaken and turn to the north. Currently, max sustained winds are estimated to be 140 mph, which is lower than the previous advisory. Considering Earl is entering an area of higher wind shear and cooler temperatures, further weakening should occur over the next 72 hours. Two things to note in the 11AM advisory is
1.) an eye wall replacement is expected to occur over the next couple hours and..
2.) Earl has already turned to an almost northerly direction.
The eye wall replacement is important to note because when this occurs, the wind field will expand. Currently, hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend as far out as 230 miles from the center. The other fact is that Earl is now moving almost due north (actually 355 degrees). Yesterday, I was anticipating a turn in that direction by later today; however, since it has already turned to the north, Earl should remain offshore as it passes the Outer Banks and remain well off the NJ coast. The NHC forecast has remained consistent as have the forecast models. With that said, the "cone of uncertainty" has been trimmed, taking NJ entirely out. I'll get into the impacts for NJ later in this post. The current forecast calls for Earl to pass east of the Outer Banks this afternoon, then, as he interacts with the Westerlies, pick up speed and turn NNE as it heads for a potential landfall over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod areas. This path should keep Earl about 100+ miles off the NJ coastline.
NJ Impact
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued from Cape May to Sandy Hook. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued from Sandy Hook to Clouds will increase from the south this evening as Earl moves closer; however, the strongest winds will be felt primarily along the coastline. For South Jersey, Cape May and Atlantic Counties could see storm surge as high as 2ft-3ft as Earl passes to the East. Most, if not all, models are projecting a tight wind/moisture gradient which means the strongest winds and rain will occur along the souther shores and over Long Island/Conn. For the areas in the watch area, you could encounter minimal tropical storm force winds, especially, if the wind field expands or any tropical rain bands move across the area. The biggest threat to NJ from Earl will be coastal. Large waves will cause costly beach erosion all along the coastline as well as coastal flooding. Northern NJ counties in the watch area (Union, Essex, Bergen, Hudson counties) shouldn't see much if anything in terms of rainfall but could experience periods of tropical storm force winds (35+ mph).
I'll be sure to post an update if there are any changes so keep checking back.
- Meteorologist Anthony Dalbo
The eye wall replacement is important to note because when this occurs, the wind field will expand. Currently, hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend as far out as 230 miles from the center. The other fact is that Earl is now moving almost due north (actually 355 degrees). Yesterday, I was anticipating a turn in that direction by later today; however, since it has already turned to the north, Earl should remain offshore as it passes the Outer Banks and remain well off the NJ coast. The NHC forecast has remained consistent as have the forecast models. With that said, the "cone of uncertainty" has been trimmed, taking NJ entirely out. I'll get into the impacts for NJ later in this post. The current forecast calls for Earl to pass east of the Outer Banks this afternoon, then, as he interacts with the Westerlies, pick up speed and turn NNE as it heads for a potential landfall over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod areas. This path should keep Earl about 100+ miles off the NJ coastline. 
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