This one has a lot of everything...

Well, here we go again.  This storm has already dumped over a foot of snow and several inches of ice over the heartland and it's going to bring us some snow, freezing rain, ice, and rain.  The problem with this storm is that due to the complexity of the snow/ice line, there is a short gradient between who will receive mostly snow and freezing rain and who will receive more rain.  So for this post, I'm going to address Northeast NJ and Northwest NJ separately.
Let's start with the Northeast.

Northeast NJ will see precipitation move in around 3am in the form of all snow.  By Tuesday morning, some warmer air will filter in to the upper atmosphere.  This warm air will not change us over to rain but rather freezing rain and ice pellets.  The reason being is that the air temperature at the surface will still be below freezing while the air temperature in the upper atmosphere will be above freezing.  This in effect prevents the crystals that usually form snowflakes from forming.  When the precipitation reaches the ground, it is still very cold and will freeze on contact.
There will be a break in the precipitation during the late afternoon early evening hours.  This intermittence will last until the primary storm system moves in from the west.  Around 9-10pm the precipitation will begin again in the form of heavy snow and sleet.  This is where the primary accumulations will take place.  Throughout the overnight hours Tuesday into Wednesday, Northeast NJ will see totals in the 2"-4" range.  Wednesday morning, we will see a quick changeover from snow to sleet and rain.  This will keep totals down compared to the rest of north Jersey.  Total Ice accumulation could be .25"-.40".

Northwest NJ will see a longer period of snow and freezing rain due to the higher elevations and track of the storm.  Northwest NJ will see snow totals in the range of 9"-12" and ice accumulations in excess of a half inch.

As always the exact track of the storm will determine the timing of the changeover and the snow/ice accumulations.  Keep checking in throughout the storm for any updates.

New Forecast Page is up!

Alright everyone. This blog is continuing to evolve.  If you click the link at the top of the page that says Forecast you will be sent to my brand new Forecast page (pretty original, huh?).  On this page, I will update my 3-Day forecast graphic.  There won't be any text or satellite/radar imagery, but those will come in time.  For now, there will be a 3-day forecast graphic so as to give you an idea as to what we could expect for NE NJ over the next 72 hours.
Hope you all enjoy!

2011 Winter vs 2005 Hurricane Seasons...

No I'm not trying to compare Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma to having 56.1" of snow in 2 months.  That would just be down right offensive to those who are still suffering in New Orleans. What I am trying to compare, is the conceitedness and immense hubris that we are seeing in meteorologists today with what we saw during the 2005 Hurricane season.  
This is the second week in a row that several MEDIA meteorologists are forecasting a strong snowstorm for the northeast 6 days in advance.  Last week, Accuweather.com posted articles and map discussions explaining how the NYC and Philadelphia metro areas would receive up to three feet of snow from a storm lasting 72 hours.  This forecast was produced 6 days ahead of the forecasted storm.  As we moved closer to the actual event, models were still all over the place but it did become apparent that we would receive several inches of snow.  Accuweather's call for 3 feet of snow was simply a ratings ploy and it worked until the storm actually arrived and we saw snow totals in the range of 12"-18".  That is a long way away from 3 feet of snow originally forecasted.  Accuweather's call for 3 feet of snow was simply a ratings ploy and it worked until the storm actually arrived and we saw they were a few FEET short in their forecast.
The day AFTER that snowstorm, while all of us were digging ourselves out, some local news outlets began hinting at another strong snowstorm for next week.  One meteorologist, who will remain nameless, had the audacity to even mention BLIZZARD.  Is there a possibility for a storm next week? Absolutely.  Forecast models have been and still are calling for the development of a Low pressure system over Oklahoma that will travel east.  The question remains as to what type of precipitation we will see.  Most models are showing a western track that will provide much of the Philadelphia and NYC metro areas with a rain/sleet event and not a snow event.  

2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The point of the matter is that, just as in 2005, media meteorologists are gaining a false sense of security and confidence that every disturbance will turn into a strong storm.  Yeah, sure, for the most part that has been the case, but, to go out there and publicly call for a blizzard 7 days away is just ridiculous.  For those who don't remember, the 2005 hurricane season was absolutely incredible.  Every tropical disturbance seemed to have become a named storm.  Meteorologists began talking about every system in the sense that it WILL become a strong hurricane instead of it COULD become a strong hurricane.  We had 28 named storms and had to use Greek letters because we had no more names to give out on the list.  Meteorologists could do no wrong in their forecasts for storm development.  Unfortunately, I'm beginning to see the same form of brass out of meteorologists today.  They are just overconfident that every trough in the south will grow into a coastal system for the east.  This is good in the sense that people are beginning to listen and believe in meteorologists again; however, it only takes one blown forecast for that trust to disappear again.  My feeling is that this upcoming system will be that blown forecast.  For meteorologists to go out and proclaim the possibility of a blizzard next week is completely ridiculous.  If the models hold true to where they are today, we won't be talking about blizzards and more snow, but rather, rain and flooding.  
To my fellow peers in the media, I know ratings are key, but so is respect.  Respect is a two-way street.  You show respect to your viewers by giving an HONEST and RESPONSIBLE forecast and they will return that same respect.  Don't let your hubris get the best of you.  Trust the science.

Current Temperatures...

The Snow is HERE....again

Well, I woke up this morning and to my surprise, the storm arrived a few hours early, which I'm sure you all noticed already.  So what does this mean for the impact it will have on us? Well, for starters, temperatures will not have the opportunity to climb far enough for rain to mix in northern NJ.  This alone ensures me that we will see the forecasted 6"-10", but there's more.  As this storm continues pushing north, it will be pulling in cold, dry, Arctic air.  This cold air will help support and sustain snow for much of NJ; however, it comes with a price (for you snow lovers).  This cold, Arctic air is dry.  The more this storm pulls in, the sharper the moisture cutoff will be on the northern fringe of the storm.  This is the central key for northern NJ's impact.  The sharp cutoff in the snow bands will keep the heaviest snow bands south of us over central and western NJ near Philadelphia/Trenton.  This area, from Sandy Hook to Philadelphia and south, will see snow totals on the higher end of the scale, close to 10".  The immediate shore counties will see 4"-6".  Northeast NJ will see between 6"-8" while the mountains of Northwest NJ (Warren and Sussex counties) will see lower totals between 4"-6".

Like a Broken Record...

Just a little weather humor

Sorry to all of my readers for the lack of updates on the upcoming storm.  I have to begin with some venting before I get into the details of the pending snow storm. I am extremely disappointed in some news outlets over the coverage of this storm which BEGAN last Friday.  Many of you were texting me, calling me, or emailing me to ask for my opinion on the next SNOWMAGGEDON.  I find it extremely irresponsible for ANY professional meteorologist to publicly discuss any storm that far in advance and with that much severity.  On Friday, it was said that this storm would last for 72 hours in the NYC metro area and dump as much as 3 feet of snow in some areas.  For those non-meteorologists, this forecast was produced by a model known as the GFS which is extremely inaccurate that far in advance and bases its output off of trends at that point in time.  There was also zero model consistency to base their predictions.  Forecasts for storms, especially snow storms, are only reliable to be addressed to the public within 48-72 hours with ANY certainty.  Prior to that, it should be mentioned as a 'heads up'.  One, often visited, weather site is renowned for their wishcasting and over-exaggerated blogs/graphics.  I know this is a lot of ranting and venting on my part, but the message I want to convey to you is this: 
When looking for a weather forecast, be mindful of how far away the forecasted storm is and the severity of it.  3 feet of snow lasting for 72 hours and forecasted 6 days in advance is absurd and should only be reserved for movies.  A storm that severe would only be forecasted with ANY confidence a day or two in advance. 


Ok. Deep breath. Back to this storm. 


 Over the last 24 hours, we have finally seen model consistency for this storm.  Since this storm was first derived by model data last week, there has been a great amount of flip-flopping over the exact storm track.  The key for this storm was the slight amount of snowfall we received Tuesday morning.  That small system dumped only 2"-3" across northern NJ; however, its biggest impact was the shift in wind direction from northerly winds to southerly winds.  This shift brought us temperatures several degrees above freezing and broke the intense cold snap we have been in for the last couple days.  This means that Wednesday's storm will not have the strong Arctic air to fuel it.  As a result, the coastal areas will most likely see more rain/sleet through most of the day before a changeover to snow.  The  rest of northern NJ and western NJ will see mostly snow with a brief mixing possible for the urban areas during the afternoon.
The storm will approach from the south tomorrow afternoon and pass through the Delmarva heading toward eastern Long Island.  Precipitation will begin to fall around noon for northern NJ, starting as all snow, since temperatures will be at or around 32degrees.  By 3pm, the temperatures may climb high enough for northeast NJ to experience some mixing with snow/sleet/rain.  If this happens, especially for any significant amount of time, expect snow totals on the lower end of the range.  By 9pm, temperatures will fall low enough across the entire forecast area to change all precipitation to snow.  This is also when the majority of the accumulations will take place.  The bulls-eye for this storm looks to be west-central NJ, specifically the counties of Hunterdon, Mercer, Morris, and Somerset counties.  As with every other storm this winter, any shift in its track to the west or east will mean a change in the forecast totals.  One model, WRF, is on the extreme snowfall spectrum, forecasting totals as high as 12"-16" across NJ, while other models are forecasting a more modest range of 6"-10".  This is what I am leaning toward as well.  Therefore, I'm anticipating all of northern NJ to see snow totals in the 6"-10" range.  The shore areas will see lower snow totals in the range of 2"-6".  Expect a lot of travel delays throughout the afternoon and evening Wednesday and potentially extending into Thursday morning rush hour.  


As always, if anything changes, I will be quick to update. Be safe if you have to travel tomorrow during the storm! 

Brief Weather Note for Thurs/Fri Storm

Update 11:00PM:  Well the same forecast still holds for the area tonight and tomorrow.  The snow will move in from west to east beginning around 12AM-1AM with the heaviest bands developing between 3AM-5AM.  By 10AM, the snow should begin to taper off as the storm pushes east.  When it's all said and done, the entire tri-state area will have accumulated 3"-5" of snow.


Wed Night update: Ok, some of you who are friends with me on facebook saw a post this morning of my initial snow total prediction for the Thurs/Fri storm.  That prediction still holds tonight with this post.  There is a weak Low pressure system pushing through the midwest this evening and will continue traveling east to the Delmarva coastline before turning Northeast.  When it reaches the Atlantic, the storm will strengthen.  The question is timing.  The closer the storm is to the coast as it strengthens, the higher the snow totals will be across the region.  Right now, it appears the storm will strengthen too far east to affect our snow totals and it will be a quick moving storm.  Therefore, I'm calling for 3"-5" for the Tri-State area beginning between 12am-3am overnight into Friday and lasting until noon Friday.  The sun could make an appearance mid-afternoon Friday but it won't help all that much since a very cold air mass will move into the region late friday and last through next Tuesday.  As always, I'll have further updates tomorrow and Friday as the storm impacts our area.