UPDATED Ice Storm Warnings posted

UPDATE: Ice storm warnings extended through much of Northern NJ except for the coastal regions.  The Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Freezing Rain Advisory. The only reason the Ice Storm Warning wasn't extended into the urban and coastal areas is because a changeover to rain is expected Wednesday morning.


As of 11:30am this morning, the National Weather Service cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Essex, Union, Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties.  That's the good news.  The bad news is Western Essex, Western Union, Bergen, and Passaic counties were issued an Ice Storm Warning; while, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union, and Hudson counties were issued a Winter Weather Advisory.  An Ice Storm Warning is issued for a 1/2 inch or more of ice accumulation which causes damage to power lines and trees.  They are only issued when there is high confidence that the entire storm event is expected to be ice.   The reason some of the area is only issued a Winter Weather Advisory is because the forecasted accumulations fall just short of any watch or warning criteria and will be a mix of precipitation.  Conditions will still be dangerous in the advisory area, as ice accumulations of .25" to .40" is expected.

The first wave of this storm has come and gone with a very minimal impact for northeast NJ.  We woke up to just an inch or so on the ground.  The second wave will be more powerful and should begin moving in after midnight tonight.  Temperatures at the surface will be well below freezing, in the mid 20's; however, the temperatures higher in the atmosphere, at the 850mb level, will be well above freezing, possibly as high as 35-40 degrees F.  This is why much of the precipitation to fall will be in the form of freezing rain and ice.  If, by chance, this warm air finds its way down to the surface, we will quickly change over to rain and our ice totals will be much lower.  This is expected to occur over the urban areas of northeast NJ (Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City) but the timing is key.  I do not believe this change over will occur until late morning Wednesday just before the storm exits our area.  I expect to see widespread accumulations of ice in the range of .25"-.50" with the higher amounts being east of the Garden State Parkway.
Ice accumulations of that magnitude are sure to damage power lines and trees, so expect widespread power outages over much of northern NJ.  So be sure to keep a flashlight handy and a battery operated alarm clock in case power goes out overnight.

I, for one, will be at the Prudential Center rooting on NJ's ONLY team, the New Jersey Devils so don't expect any updates between 5pm and 10pm tonight.  If anything changes I will post an update some time after 10pm.  Be careful if you have to travel tonight and tomorrow and remember just because you have a truck and four-wheel drive, doesn't mean you can drive on ice, especially ice this thick.  If you don't believe me, check out this Video.