Old Man Winter Is Back!

UPDATE 1:45 AM: After looking at the radar for the last couple hours, a pocket of dry air has built up over northeast NJ and much of the precipitation moving over the area is evaporating before it reaches the ground.  The longer this dry air remains, the lower our snow totals will be for this storm.  I'm not ready to lower the forecasted snow totals just yet; however, if this dry air remains for another hour than we can expect totals in the 2"-4" range instead of the previously forecasted 4"-6".


Well, that springtime feel we had last week is gone and now another winter storm is at hand.  Overnight tonight, a string of low pressures from the midwest will being pushing through bringing with it a steady stream of snow and possibly sleet during the afternoon.
The first storm will come in tonight with snow beginning between 12am-2am.  During the overnight hours, the snow will become heavy at times.  By noon, we could see some brief mixing with sleet particularly over the urban areas of northeast NJ.  This could keep snow totals on the lower end of the forecast range.  Snow should begin to tamper off around 2pm-4pm; however, by this point there will already be 4"-6" of snow on the ground.  The further west you are, the more snow you will accumulate.
The second round will come in on Tues; however, at this time, my belief is that this storm will be too far south to impact North Jersey's weather.  This storm will have a greater impact on south Jersey.  If anything changes in this storm's path I will be sure to post an update.

Remember, snow total graphics courtesy of the NWS are accessible on the Forecast page.  Don't forget to follow the precipitation moving through the area on the Radar page as well!

For now, enjoy yet another round of winter weather.  Only a few more inches away from a record breaking seasonal snow total!

Another Coastal Storm for Saturday

I understand we are all growing tired and agitated with this carousel of storms this winter, but, just remember, I do not control the weather. I simply analyze it.

Now that I tried to protect myself, let's get down to it. There's yet another coastal storm moving up the coast this weekend.  The good news is that the storm is forecasted to hug the coast.  This is a good thing because the storm will not be able to tap into as much moisture as possible and therefore it won't be able to "bomb out" and become a powerful winter storm.  Also, it will allow more warm air to filter into the area.
Now, light snow will begin to move into the area very early Saturday morning. By late morning, as temperatures begin to climb to the low 30s, the snow will begin to mix with sleet and rain.  The low pressure center will be off the coast of NJ by mid afternoon, at which time, the warmer air will be moving into the region, allowing for a changeover to rain.  This will keep our snow totals down.  We are looking for a light snowfall with this storm and some minor icing, primarily before the changeover to rain.  Much of north Jersey will see snow totals between 1"-3". The further east you are, the lower the snow totals for this weekend.  Sussex and Warren counties will have a greater chance of minimal ice accumulation as they will most likely not see any rainfall, but rather, a longer period of snow/sleet.

As a side note, we are only 18" away from having the snowiest winter on record for the NYC metro area! More on that to come next week.

UPDATED Ice Storm Warnings posted

UPDATE: Ice storm warnings extended through much of Northern NJ except for the coastal regions.  The Winter Weather Advisory has been upgraded to a Freezing Rain Advisory. The only reason the Ice Storm Warning wasn't extended into the urban and coastal areas is because a changeover to rain is expected Wednesday morning.


As of 11:30am this morning, the National Weather Service cancelled the Winter Storm Warning for Essex, Union, Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties.  That's the good news.  The bad news is Western Essex, Western Union, Bergen, and Passaic counties were issued an Ice Storm Warning; while, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union, and Hudson counties were issued a Winter Weather Advisory.  An Ice Storm Warning is issued for a 1/2 inch or more of ice accumulation which causes damage to power lines and trees.  They are only issued when there is high confidence that the entire storm event is expected to be ice.   The reason some of the area is only issued a Winter Weather Advisory is because the forecasted accumulations fall just short of any watch or warning criteria and will be a mix of precipitation.  Conditions will still be dangerous in the advisory area, as ice accumulations of .25" to .40" is expected.

The first wave of this storm has come and gone with a very minimal impact for northeast NJ.  We woke up to just an inch or so on the ground.  The second wave will be more powerful and should begin moving in after midnight tonight.  Temperatures at the surface will be well below freezing, in the mid 20's; however, the temperatures higher in the atmosphere, at the 850mb level, will be well above freezing, possibly as high as 35-40 degrees F.  This is why much of the precipitation to fall will be in the form of freezing rain and ice.  If, by chance, this warm air finds its way down to the surface, we will quickly change over to rain and our ice totals will be much lower.  This is expected to occur over the urban areas of northeast NJ (Newark, Elizabeth, Jersey City) but the timing is key.  I do not believe this change over will occur until late morning Wednesday just before the storm exits our area.  I expect to see widespread accumulations of ice in the range of .25"-.50" with the higher amounts being east of the Garden State Parkway.
Ice accumulations of that magnitude are sure to damage power lines and trees, so expect widespread power outages over much of northern NJ.  So be sure to keep a flashlight handy and a battery operated alarm clock in case power goes out overnight.

I, for one, will be at the Prudential Center rooting on NJ's ONLY team, the New Jersey Devils so don't expect any updates between 5pm and 10pm tonight.  If anything changes I will post an update some time after 10pm.  Be careful if you have to travel tonight and tomorrow and remember just because you have a truck and four-wheel drive, doesn't mean you can drive on ice, especially ice this thick.  If you don't believe me, check out this Video.