Hurricane Irene Update with approximate Timeline

Heavier rain bands are moving through northern NJ now and Irene's center is still located just east of Ocean City, MD.  Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Irene's center shows that minimum pressure has increased very slightly to 955mb signifying some weakening.  This was expected to occur; however, Irene is still on track to remain a hurricane through the next 12 hours, as she passes over NYC metro.  I do believe Irene will follow a path closer to the Jersey coastline, if not over it, and continue NNE over Manhattan/Brooklyn/Nassau County borders. 

As I mentioned at the top, the heavier rain bands have begun to push through the region and some of these bands are producing TORNADOS.  North NJ can expect much of the same over the next couple of hours. Between 1AM-5AM, tropical storm force sustained winds between 30-60mph will be wide spread throughout the region with higher wind gusts located in heavier rain bands.  Around 5AM, Irene's core will be close enough to bring us hurricane force sustained winds ranging upwards near 80mph.  That will last until 10AM, at which point, the winds will begin to gradually subside.  

Flooding is the other concern. Reports at this early hour of the storm are coming in from Newark and Jersey City of street flooded.  Because of the saturated rain, it was estimated that only 2" of rain would be needed to flood much of NJ and we are already at that point.  Forecasted rain totals throughout NJ are between 8"-12".  Widespread flooding is expected and that's not including the storm surge and storm tide levels along the coast.  Storm surge forecasts are calling for 4'-8' from Cape May to Long Island Sound.  Raritan Bay can expect 6' storm surges; Battery Park can expect 5' storm surge; and Atlantic City could see storm surge of around 8'.  Water levels rising 4'-6' plus another 2'-4' associated with the New Moon Tide gives us a storm tide range of 6'-10'.  So imagine the water levels along the coastal regions rising 6'-10' plus 10'-15' waves crashing above that!  This is a very serious threat to public and property so if you decided to stay along the coast and not heed the evacuation orders, climb as high as you can and hope for the best.  

As long as you have power, please keep watch for tornado warnings posted for your area and stay away from windows in case any debris gets whipped around.  Also, for those living near tall trees, I suggest staying in a lower level of your house, in case a tree falls.  If you happen to lose power, which much of us will, please refrain from using candles! Candles present a severe fire threat and emergency vehicles will not be out to help during the peak of the storm.  With that said, I wish you all the best. 

Hurricane Irene approaching NC Coastline, still forecasted to strike NJ/NYC Sat/Sun

Hurricane Irene appears to be weakening slowly as it approaches the NC Coastline. She remains a Cat 2 hurricane with 100mph sustained winds and gusts upwards of 115mph.  Hurricane WARNINGS are posted from Little River Inlet, SC to Sagamore Beach, MA, encompassing 29 million people!

Hurricane Irene has stabilized and the minimum pressure has actually dropped slightly, which could be a sign of some minor strengthening.  Once she crosses the NC coast, Irene will continue to weaken to a Category 1 storm by the time it reaches NYC. That's good news, right? NOT QUITE! Yes, it is good that the max winds have decreased; however, this storm is so massive and the wind field so expansive that the effects will be widespread, prolonged, and destructive.  Storm surge along the Jersey Shore and Raritan Bay will be in the 5'-10' range.
For those of you who do not know what storm surge is, let me take a minute to explain. Some people believe it is simply flooding. Storm surge is much more dangerous than simply flooding.  Storm Surge is defined as the abnormal rise of water from a storm, over and above the predicted astronomical tide level. Storm TIDE is defined as the combination of storm surge and astronomical tides. See the picture to the right for further explanation. Storm tides could reach 12'-15' along the coast during high tide Sat/Sun, as the astronomical high tide will be abnormally high due to the new moon phase.  Unfortunately, the peak storm surge for Irene is expected to occur during the morning high tide along the coastline. Historically, more people have died and property damage destroyed from storm surge than the wind.

Worst case scenarios in NYC call for up to $50-$100 billion in damages.  Storm surge associated with this storm could flood the Holland and Brooklyn Battery Tunnels, lower Manhattan, and could leave JFK Airport under 10'-20' of water! 

Incredible Footage Taken from ISS of Hurricane Irene

Check out this video taken by cosmonauts on the International Space Station as they flew 230 miles above Hurricane Irene. This storm is incredibly massive and equally as dangerous. Irene is actually over 1,000 miles across!!! Video courtesy of NASA

Hurricane Irene Updates beginning Thursday Aug 25

After following tropical storms for so many years, I've quickly learned that tropical forecasts are very dynamic and tend to shift at every model run. Therefore, I decided to hold off on posting blog updates until the moment of land impacts were at hand. Well, the outer-most cloud bands of Irene are only a few miles off the coast of Florida this evening and she will begin to turn north Thursday afternoon. As she does so, we'll have a much better idea of her future impacts.

Those either living in or traveling to Long Island, the Jersey Shore, or the New York Metro area need to pay very close attention to Hurricane Irene and this blog!